Analytical Parameter Estimation of the SIR Epidemic Model. Applications to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the mathematical community to derive an explicit solution. The present paper reports novel analytical results and numerical algorithms suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. Notably, a series solution of the incidence variable of the model is derived. It is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, describing the incidence, which is a solution of a non-elementary integral equation. The paper introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The approach is applied to the case study of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in five European countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Incidence and case fatality data obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) are analysed and the model parameters are estimated and compared for the period Jan-Dec 2020.