Oracle selection provides insight into how far off practice is from Utopia in plant breeding

Abstract

Since the introduction of genomic selection in plant breeding, high genetic gains have been realized in different plant breeding programs. Various methods based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for selecting parental lines that maximize the genetic gain as well as methods for improving the predictive performance of genomic selection have been proposed. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to measure to what extent these methods really maximize long-term genetic values. In this study, we propose oracle selection, a hypothetical frame of mind that uses the ground truth to optimally select parents or optimize the training population in order to maximize the genetic gain in each breeding cycle. Clearly, oracle selection cannot be applied in a true breeding program, but allows for the assessment of existing parental selection and training population update methods and the evaluation of how far these methods are from the optimal utopian solution.