Data-Driven Slip Prediction in Web Processing Machines Using Virtual Sensors and Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract

In roll-to-roll (R2R) web processing systems, traction rollers impose precise velocity profiles on the moving web. Ideally, the web follows this trajectory without deviation, but slip can occur during rapid acceleration or deceleration, leading to tension loss and degraded product quality. Although slip can be detected directly using high-resolution encoders that track the actual web speed, such sensors are expensive and require machine downtime for installation, making them impractical for large-scale industrial deployment. To overcome this limitation, we developed a virtual slip sensor that estimates slip using existing machine signals only. A temporary encoder was used to collect ground-truth data, enabling the training of predictive models that eliminate the need for a permanent physical sensor. The proposed system employs an ensemble modeling approach: a CatBoost model captures low-slip behavior where data is abundant, while a linear model extrapolates to high-slip, out-of-distribution conditions. Targeted feature engineering ensures generalization across varying ramp times and web speeds. Despite being trained primarily on data containing limited slip, the models successfully generalized to scenarios with severe slip, demonstrating robust predictive performance. The ensemble reduces the regular CatBoost model’s MSE at 60 m/min by approximately 54% in the speed-based evaluation and by approximately 68% in the quantile-based evaluation while maintaining comparable performance in the low-speed regimes. The resulting virtual sensor enables continuous real-time slip monitoring, providing operators with timely insights to prevent quality degradation and operate at higher acceleration profiles to increase throughput, even on machines that have not previously experienced extreme slip.